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Mesoscale Discussion 0897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241448Z - 241615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts may occur across portions of the
Upper Texas Coast the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A band of strong storms is lifting northward near the
Upper Texas Coast this morning at around 40 kt. Latest radar data
indicates a pocket of 45-55 kt velocities around 1-2 kft. Deep-layer
flow is rather weak, but some local enhancement is likely occurring
as this activity is developing on the east side of an MCV/lead
shortwave impulse shifting east toward the Middle Texas Coast.
Surface dewpoints in the low 70s are supporting a corridor of
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line of convection. However, low
and mid-level lapse rates remain weak, while DCAPE values are less
than 1000 J/kg. Forecast RAP soundings do indicate a modest dry
layer just above the surface, which could aid in stronger outflow as
the convection advances quickly northward. Locally strong gusts may
acco*pany this activity the remainder of the morning, but overall
severe threat is expected to remain marginal and a watch is not
expected at this time.

..Leitman/Hart.. 05/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   28779529 28969542 29839554 30149551 30329539 30429514
            30519450 30479415 30319391 29949381 29409386 29099398
            28919412 28799443 28759488 28779529