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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous thunderstorms are expected from west-central Texas into the
ArkLaMiss region, some of which will produce hail, damaging winds,
and a few tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
The dominant mid/upper-level feature for this period will be a
pronounced synoptic-scale trough -- initially located over the
Rockies.  An embedded vorticity maximum --  evident in
moisture-channel imagery over south-central CO -- is expected to
strengthen into a closed cyclone over the next several hours.  The
associated 500-mb low should reach east-central/southeastern CO near
the KS border by 00Z, with trough south-southwestward across the TX
Big Bend region.  The low will move eastward over western KS
overnight, while the trough assumes neutral to slightly negative
tilt, reaching the TX Hill Country and Rio Grande Valley near LRD by
the end of the period.  A shortwave trough now evident over the Four
Corners region should dig southeastward across NM today, perhaps
with some convective vorticity augmentation this afternoon/evening,
then beco*e a strong basal shortwave trough tonight over the TX
South Plains region, before pivoting east-northeastward toward
north-central TX/south-central OK.

East of the synoptic trough, a series of small shortwave
perturbations -- many of them convectively induced/enhanced
vorticity lobes -- will pivot northeastward across the Gulf Coast
States, lower Mississippi Valley region, and GA/Carolinas.  One of
those -- now apparent in reflectivity co*posites and satellite
imagery over west-central/southwestern AL -- should move
northeastward to the eastern parts of TN/KY this evening while
weakening.  Another may arise from an MCS now offshore from deep
south TX, and pivot northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity by
this evening.  Another -- related to ongoing convection over western
OK and northwest TX -- should move northeastward to MO.  There
likely will be more.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over NC between CLT-POB,
with warm front eastward across the southern Outer Banks, and
wavy/quasistationary front west-southwestward to northern LA. The
boundary continues diffusely into northeast TX and southern OK as a
warm front.  Warm frontogenesis was evident along a boundary
extending near an SPS-OKC-TUL-JLN-OWB line, and that will beco*e the
main front today as the Red River-area boundary gets more diffuse. 
An outflow-reinforced frontal zone extended from the SPS area
southwestward to near MAF, then to near CNM and SRR.

The NC low should move slowly eastward across that state today,
along the front, with only slight northward drift of the boundary
expected just ahead of the low.  A separate low should develop by
afternoon over northern OK/southern KS, beco*ing better defined and
moving northeastward over eastern KS tonight.  The trailing,
outflow-reinforced cold front will move southeastward across much of
OK and west TX through tonight.  By 12Z, the boundary should reach
from a newer/frontal-wave low over the Arklatex region southwestward
across south-central TX to the Rio Grande Valley in the LRD-DRT
corridor.

...Southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley...
A co*plex convective scenario will unfold this period, driven
primarily (but not entirely) by activity related to the baroclinic
zone and the perturbation(s) aloft pivoting through the synoptic
trough.  Ongoing convection over OK and near the Red River may pose
a marginal wind threat as it impinges on a boundary layer with weak
lapse rates, but slowly/advectively strengthening warm-sector
moisture and theta-e through the afternoon.

The best-organized severe potential appears to be from two other
processes:

1.  New development along the baroclinic zone across north through
west-central TX this afternoon, some of which may be supercellular
at first with large to isolated very large hail, localized damaging
gusts and a tornado or two.  However, this activity should grow
upscale to a squall line rapidly as frontal forcing encounters (and
increasing large-scale ascent passes over) the very moist warm-
sector boundary layer across north, central and perhaps parts of
southwest TX.  The main threat will evolve to damaging and severe
wind -- especially with surging/bowing segments.  Localized
significant (65+kt) wind corridors may develop, but will depend on
mesobeta- and smaller-scale convective/cold-pool processes whose
evolution still is uncertain at this point.

Some potential for QLCS tornadoes will exist with this MCS as well
for several hours this evening, as it encounters a co*bination of
surface-based effective-inflow parcels and enlarging boundary-layer
hodographs/SRH beneath a strengthening LLJ.  Strengthening mid/upper
flow through the day will improve deep-layer shear, with effective-
shear magnitudes topping 50 kt near the north-central/ west-central
TX frontal segment.  Peak/preconvective MLCAPE should increase from
around 1000 J/kg over eastern OK and AR to 2000-3000 J/kg across
west-central TX and the Edwards Plateau vicinity.

2.  A north-south, broken belt of convection forming in the
post-frontal upslope-lift regime of east-central NM and moving
southeastward.  Though this activity will encounter some boundary-
layer air processed by prior convection, it will be supported by 
residual moisture, midlevel cooling/lift near the trough, and
modestly diurnally enhanced low-level instability, for a threat of
strong-severe gusts and hail.  Some of this convection may survive
to reach the frontal zone over west-central TX, then either merge
with or backbuild upon the above-mentioned MCS.

...Southeastern CONUS...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop,
predominantly this afternoon, in a broad area of the Southeast. 
Damaging gusts will be the main concern.  Coverage will vary greatly
within this area, but likely greatest along boundaries (outflow,
sea-breeze and differential-heating), and where mesoscale areas of
lift related to the MCV(s) move atop the generally favorably moist
environment across the region.  Modest midlevel lapse rates and
generally weak mid/upper winds will keep deep shear weak over most
of the area, with storms mainly multicellular in nature.  Brief
supercell structures may develop where mass response to MCV-related
processes boosts hodograph size locally.  Isolated damaging gusts
and perhaps a tornado also may occur over portions of eastern NC,
south through east of the low where the moisture/buoyancy parameter
space will be maximized today in co*bination with low-level shear.

..Edwards/Kerr.. 05/24/2022