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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH TX....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across portions of the
southern High Plains as well as south Texas. Large hail, severe wind
gusts, and a tornado or two are possible.

...01Z Update...

...Carolinas...
As recently discussed in MCD #891, thunderstorms continue to develop
in the vicinity of the post-tropical low over the western Carolinas.
CAE VAD profile recently sampled 0-1 km SRH around 270 m2/s2 and 0-1
km vertical shear around 30 kt. However, this low-level kinematic
environment has recently been countered by increasing nocturnal
stabilization. This has reduced the tornado threat, with further
reduction anticipated as the surface low continues to move north
into a more stable air mass and diurnal cooling fosters growing
inhibition.

...TX Panhandle into the TX South Plains...
As mentioned in MCD #892, scattered supercells are gradually
shifting east along the TX/NM border early this evening. As the
low-level jet shifts east and increases to near 40kt, convection
will be encouraged to propagate toward western OK while
transitioning towards a more linear mode. Until then a few
supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible, as evidenced
by the southern-most supercell, north of Morton TX, which has
produced hail in excess of 2 inches along with at least one
potentially significant tornado.

...South TX...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue for at least
the next several hours ahead of a shortwave trough moving through
the region. Abundant low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse
rates support moderate to strong buoyancy and the potential for a
few storms capable of large hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Some
potential exists for the development of an organized convective
line, which would increase the risk for strong wind gusts.

...Central TX...
The cluster of storms moving through central TX will likely persist
for the next few hours, supported by moderate buoyancy and a
strengthening low-level jet. Hail is possible within any more robust
updrafts. This cluster is then expected to weaken as it moves into
more of northeast TX and beco*es increasingly displaced from the
low-level jet. 

...Central Gulf Coast...
Additional thunderstorms are possible tonight into tomorrow morning
as warm-air advection increases ahead of the shortwave trough
currently moving through south TX. Storm severity should be
mitigated by weak vertical shear.

..Mosier.. 05/24/2022