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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST NM
AND WEST TX INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon into Monday
night across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail, severe
wind gusts, and a tornado or two possible. Storms capable of
isolated damaging wind and a tornado or two are possible across
parts of the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing currently in place across the CONUS is
expected throughout the day today as a pair of embedded shortwave
troughs move into the Plains. The lead shortwave is forecast to move
into the central Plains late this afternoon, while the shortwave
following quickly in its wake moves into the southern High Plains
this evening. Lee troughing will deepen across the central and
southern High Plains ahead of this second shortwave trough, with the
resulting increase in the surface pressure gradient supporting
moisture return throughout the day. Instability associated with the
returning low-level moisture coupled with ascent ahead of the
approaching shortwave and convergence along the dryline are expected
to result in numerous thunderstorms this afternoon.  

Farther east, a convectively augmented shortwave trough and
associated surface low are currently moving over the central Gulf
Coast. This system is expected to continue moving gradually
northeastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by early
Tuesday morning. 

...Southern High Plains...
A significant gradient in moisture exists across the southern Plains
currently, particularly for this time of year. Dewpoints along the
TX Gulf Coast are in the upper 60s/low 70s while dewpoints in the TX
Panhandle are in the upper 20s/low 30s. Even so, strong moisture
return is anticipated throughout the day, with upper 50s dewpoints
in place across the TX Panhandle by tomorrow afternoon. This
increasing low-level moisture should led to increased buoyancy ahead
of the shortwave mentioned in synopsis. Ascent attendant to the
shortwave coupled with low-level convergence along the dryline
should result in the development of numerous thunderstorms. Vertical
shear will be modest, but a few more organized updrafts are
possible. Hail will be the primary severe risk early, with a
transition to wind damage as the storms beco*e more outflow
dominant.

Additional thunderstorm development is also possible farther south
into the Trans-Pecos region associated with a weak shortwave trough
moving out of northeastern Mexico. Like the area farther north,
vertical shear will be modest, likely limiting the number of
organized storms. Even so, a few organized storms capable of hail
and/or damaging winds are possible.

A strong low-level jet is forecast to across west TX tonight, and
there is some potential for upscale growth of the afternoon
thunderstorm activity into one or more convective lines. Recent
guidance indicates this is most likely across the Edwards Plateau,
with the resulting line then moving into the TX Hill Country.  

...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic...
Showers and thunderstorms will acco*pany the shortwave trough moving
through the region. Destabilization ahead of the shortwave will be
limited by cloudiness, but temperatures are still expected to reach
into the low to mid 80s. These temperatures, coupled with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s, will support moderate buoyancy, despite
poor mid-level lapse rates. Slightly enhanced low- to mid-level flow
is expected throughout the eastern periphery of the trough,
contributing to strong low-level shear. This co*bination of buoyancy
and shear could result in a few stronger storms with the
thunderstorms ahead of the shortwave. Primary threat is damaging
downburst winds, but a brief tornado or two is also possible,
particularly over GA and SC during the early afternoon when the low-
to mid-level flow will be strongest.

..Mosier/Moore.. 05/23/2022