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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL...EAST AND NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with wind damage and large hail will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of the central, east and north
Texas.

...Southern Plains...
An upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward into the
central High Plains on Tuesday, as a belt of stronger mid-level flow
moves into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to move across west Texas and Oklahoma, being positioned
from near Dallas southwestward to near Midland by mid afternoon. To
the southeast of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s F will likely result in moderate instability. Thunderstorm
development is forecast along and southeast of the front during the
late afternoon and early evening, with a convective co*plex moving
eastward across parts of north and central Texas.

The latest model solutions have slowed the upper-level trough down a
bit, and maintain a warm sector that is further northwest. MLCAPE is
forecast to reach the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range across much of central
Texas with slightly weaker instability expected toward the Red
River. The ECMWF and GFS continue to develop a convective co*plex
across parts of central and northern Texas by early Tuesday evening,
where 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 35 knots. This, co*bined
with 0-3 km lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km ahead of the co*plex,
should be favorable for wind damage associated with multicell line
segments. Although supercells with isolated large hail may also
occur, the threat should be isolated and dependent upon how unstable
the airmass can beco*e. The severe threat may move into parts of
east-central Texas by mid to late evening associated with the
eastward-moving cluster of storms. A marginal severe threat may also
form further north in southern Oklahoma where instability is
expected to remain relatively weak.

..Broyles.. 05/23/2022