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Mesoscale Discussion 0868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama into southwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221548Z - 221745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts may acco*pany the leading line of
storms into the early afternoon hours. A WW issuance is not expected
given the isolated and marginal nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...A tropical MCS, characterized by a -7 to -10 F
temperature deficit/cold pool, is progressing northward within a
modest deep-layer wind profile. While deep-layer ambient shear is
weak, the leading-line of the MCS is progressing towards warmer
temperatures across southern Alabama/southwest Georgia, which are
approaching the lowers 80s F and may warm further before the MCS
arrives. As such, further boundary-layer mixing may support a couple
of damaging gusts associated with this MCS as it progresses
northward (as suggested by the 12Z hr**). 15Z mesoanalysis shows
increasing DCAPE in advance of the leading line, indicative of a
thermodynamic profile supportive of damaging gust potential with
continued evaporative cooling/northward cold pool progression.
Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain relatively
isolated and brief given the lack of stronger upper support and
vertical shear, and a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri.. 05/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30908425 30578492 30718543 30928608 30968672 30908713
            30768749 31458752 32448679 32848559 32648446 32068412
            31458414 30908425