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Mesoscale Discussion 0867
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...

Valid 220709Z - 220915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260
continues.

SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts approaching severe limits are
still possible through 4-6 AM CDT, particularly across the middle
and upper coastal plain.  A new severe weather watch is not
currently anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Embedded within light (around 10 kt) and weakly sheared
deep-layer west-southwesterly mean ambient flow, peak thunderstorm
intensities have generally been slowly diminishing along the leading
edge of southward and eastward advancing convective outflows. 
Inflow is beco*ing characterized by weaker CAPE with some cooling of
the seasonably moist boundary layer across the coastal plain, but
potential instability does still remain strong (up to 3000 J/kg).  

Given this lingering instability, it might still not be out of the
question that one or two mesoscale convective vortices could beco*e
better defined, with strengthening rear inflow and downdrafts, and
potential for strong surface gusts approaching severe limits,
particularly west and southwest of the Greater Houston area. 
However, it is not clear that this will require a new severe weather
watch.

..Kerr.. 05/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29049763 29289687 30039638 30529532 30799418 29849357
            29459411 28619616 28169750 28399785 29049763