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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with wind damage and hail will be possible
across parts of the Northeast on Sunday. A marginal severe threat
may also develop from the Carolina Piedmont to the Gulf Coast
states.

...Northeast...

Upper ridge will flatten across New England Sunday as strong
mid-level flow translates across ON into QC ahead of a short-wave
trough. As a result, large-scale ascent will primarily remain north
of the international border. Even so, in response to the Canadian
short wave, some semblance of a LLJ will evolve ahead of the front
with southwesterly 850mb flow expected to increase to near 40kt
along the Maine/QC border. Latest guidance suggests a weak surface
low will track across southern QC which will encourage the warm
sector to recover a bit across northern ME, ensuring adequate
buoyancy for robust updrafts.

Latest model guidance suggests much of the northeastern US will
experience seasonally strong boundary-layer heating ahead of the
front. Scattered convection should readily develop across the warm
sector in advance of the wind shift. Forecast soundings support
supercells along with organized multicell clusters. 

Early this morning, a substantial amount of convection has
progressed into the TN Valley and there is some indication a weak
disturbance could evolve from the middle TN activity by sunrise. If
so, this feature would progress northeast and likely contribute to
renewed convection over the middle Atlantic later today. At this
time will not extend SLGT Risk into MD/VA to account for this
threat, as this feature may be more readily ascertained by late
morning.

...Lower Latitudes...

A substantial amount of deep convection has evolved and propagated
into the central Gulf Basin. Latest model guidance suggests somewhat
stronger mid-level flow will evolve across the eastern Gulf which
could extend toward the FL Big Bend region. Forecast soundings
exhibit substantial low-level turning and this may contribute to
some weak rotation at times within stronger updrafts.

Extensive frontal convection continues from middle TN-southern
AR-south TX. This activity is expected to propagate southeast toward
the middle/upper TX/southwestern LA coast toward the beginning of
the period. Any daytime robust convection should evolve ahead of
this activity. Gusty winds would be the primary severe threat.

..Darrow/Moore.. 05/22/2022