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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern High
Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be
located across parts of central and east Texas, where moderate
instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm
formation will be possible over a large part of the southern Plains
eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. An MCS may organize
along the northern edge of the stronger instability and pose a
severe threat during the afternoon and evening. At this time, there
is a large spread in the model solutions concerning where this MCS
could potentially form. This co*bined with the fact that mesoscale
influences will be a strong contributor to any severe threat, makes
for a lot of uncertainty. There will likely be need for a severe
threat area once the model solutions key in on a specific area with
greater potential.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly
eastward across the southern Plains. A moist and unstable airmass
should be in place from the Texas Coastal Plains eastward into the
central Gulf Coast states. Moisture advection will also take place
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A potential for strong
thunderstorm development will be possible along the northern edge of
the stronger instability, somewhere from east Texas eastward into
lower Mississippi Valley. Other strong thunderstorms could form
ahead of a cold front from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward
into the Ohio Valley. Mesoscale influences and the distribution of
instability will again have a strong impact any severe threat that
develops Wednesday afternoon.

The upper-level trough is forecast to move into the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as a moist airmass remains to the
east of the system. Thunderstorm development will be possible over a
large area from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the
Ohio Valley. Isolated strong thunderstorms will again be possible
along this corridor in areas that heat up the most, and in areas
where mesoscale factors are favorable.

From Tuesday to Thursday, predictability is too low to add a threat
area, due to the uncertainties previously mentioned.

...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move
slowly eastward toward the East Coast. Thunderstorms will again be
possible each day across a broad area ahead of the system. Although
strong thunderstorms will be possible in some areas of the eastern
U.S. each afternoon and evening, the range in the forecast is too
far out to make any solid conclusions concerning specific threat
areas.