Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns appear likely for Sunday afternoon across
parts of the Southwest and Four Corners region. An upper-level
disturbance embedded within the mean trough will approach the Four
Corners region on Sunday. Falling heights aloft will support surface
pressure falls over the central Rockies, which should boost regional
pressure-gradient winds from the eastern Great Basin, into the
Southwest, and across the High Plains. Increasing winds within an
antecedent dry air mass with receptive fuels will support at least
elevated fire weather concerns, though some regional details remain
uncertain. 

...Arizona into New Mexico...
Sustained winds between 15-20 mph appear likely across eastern AZ
into western NM by late Sunday afternoon amid surface pressure falls
to the north across UT/CO. An antecedent dry air mass will support
widespread RH reductions to 10-15% by peak heating, and already
receptive fuels will contribute to the fire weather potential. Good
agreement among ensemble and deterministic solutions yields high
confidence in elevated conditions, and areas of critical conditions
are possible across parts of northeast AZ/northwest NM where
sustained winds may exceed 20 mph. Somewhat weak mid/upper-level
winds limits confidence in this scenario at this time, but a
Critical risk area may be introduced if the potential for widespread
sustained 20+ mph winds increases. 

...Eastern Nevada into Utah...
Most deterministic solutions hint at areas of 15-20 mph winds
overlapping with 15-25% RH values across eastern NV into much of UT
Sunday afternoon. However, considerable spread in both the coverage
and duration of these conditions is noted, and similar spread is
observed in ensemble solutions. Furthermore, the coverage of
receptive fuels across this region is patchy based on recent ERC
analyses, so the overlap of elevated fire weather conditions with
receptive fuels is somewhat unclear. This uncertainty precludes
highlights at this time, but the potential for elevated fire weather
conditions is noted and a risk area may be introduced in subsequent
forecast updates. 

...Central/Southern High Plains...
A dry return-flow pattern is expected for Sunday afternoon with
winds increasing to 15-20 mph from western OK and the TX Panhandle
into western KS/eastern CO. The recent frontal intrusion into the
Southern Plains will limit moisture return with 20-30% RH likely
across the region. However, ongoing rainfall (as of early Saturday
morning) across parts of western OK, northwest KS, and eastern CO
introduce some uncertainty regarding fuel status by Sunday
afternoon. Fuel trends will be monitored over the next 24 hours, and
highlights may be needed if confidence in the fire weather potential
increases. 

...Sacramento Valley...
A northerly, down-valley flow regime is expected Sunday afternoon
for the Sacramento Valley. An unseasonably dry air mass currently
over northern CA (where dewpoints are currently near the 10th
percentile for mid/late May) will linger into Sunday and support RH
reductions down to 15-20%. Ensemble guidance suggests winds between
10-15 mph are likely, which may support areas of elevated fire
weather concerns.

..Moore.. 05/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...