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Mesoscale Discussion 0845
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022

Areas affected...south-central Oklahoma into northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 202050Z - 202315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated storms are possible by 22Z, and most
likely after 00Z near the front. Large hail may occur, as well as
damaging downbursts.

DISCUSSION...A front is slowly progressing across OK, extending from
near Tulsa to just south of Wichita Falls TX. The front is clearly
seen on visible imagery, with a line of CU along the front.  Area
wind profiles suggest the depth of the post-frontal cool air is
around 1 km AGL, while modified soundings indicate the capping
inversion is likely at or above 2 km AGL. As such, the area remains
capped. One exception is into northwest TX where temperatures are
above 100 F. Here, dewpoints have mixed below 60s F along the
immediate front, but PWAT increases quickly to the east. Isolated
cells may form here first, producing brief periods of hail or gusty
winds.

Other storms are expected to form in the vicinity of the front
during the evening, when warm and moist advection occurs through 850
mb. This may cause portions of the boundary to beco*e a warm front
and retrograde a bit. The enhanced lift after 00Z may also break the
cap, with anywhere from a few storms to a large cluster possible.
Winds aloft are weak, so storm motion will likely be driven by
propagation/back building. Strong instability will support sporadic
large hail, a few severe downbursts, and perhaps very heavy rain
where backbuilding occurs.

Isolated cells may form over the next couple hours where

..Jewell/Hart.. 05/20/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   35109639 34789677 34329717 33559792 32689917 32779966
            33009967 33569895 34059838 34689792 35279734 35529682
            35499658 35329642 35109639