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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...PENNSYLVANIA...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across lower Michigan,
northern Middle Atlantic, and a small part of the southern Plains.

...Northern Middle Atlantic...

Long-lived MCS that developed over northwestern OK Wednesday night
has progressed across southern MO into southern IN early this
morning. An MCV is embedded in the northwestern portion of this
co*plex just west of BMG. Given the longevity and strength of this
feature, there is increasing confidence for robust convection later
today across the northern Middle Atlantic. By late morning this
feature should be located over western PA. Associated convection
will likely be ongoing at daybreak over the upper OH Valley, with
updraft intensification expected along the leading edge of this
co*plex by 18z over central PA. Subsequent movement should allow
this activity to spread toward western NJ before weakening as it
encounters increasingly hostile air mass. Damaging winds/hail are
the primary risks.

...Lower Michigan...

Seasonally strong belt of southwesterly flow aloft will extend
across the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region as the
primary upper trough holds farther west across the High Plains into
the central Rockies. This flow regime will allow for a slow eastward
progression of the surface front, likely extending from the eastern
UP of MI into northern IL by early afternoon. In the absence of
meaningful height falls, boundary-layer heating will prove
instrumental in convective development later today. Latest model
guidance suggests modest surface heating will be noted across lower
MI ahead of the front. Forecast soundings suggest CINH will weaken
across the eastern UP of MI into northeast WI by early afternoon,
and scattered convection is expected to develop across this region
first. Wind profiles favor supercells and this activity should
spread/develop east-northeast ahead of the cold front across
northern lower MI. Latest hr** members support this scenario and
there appears to be some tornado threat with these supercells given
the shear/buoyancy. Otherwise, hail and wind can be expected with
this convection.

...Southern Plains...

Strong surface cold front is surging south across the central High
Plains early this morning and will likely advance to a position from
southwestern MO-central OK-TX South Plains at 18z. However, the wind
shift will likely slow during the afternoon, settling into the Red
River vicinity by peak heating. Intense surface heating across
northwest TX will contribute to very steep surface-3km lapse rates
just ahead of the front, more than enough to remove CINH for
convective initiation. Will maintain SLGT Risk across a small
portion of the southern Plains where intense surface heating and
frontal convergence will likely be adequate for sustained updrafts.
Modest wind profiles should support organized multicell updrafts
capable of generating hail/wind.

..Darrow/Moore.. 05/20/2022