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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Monday
from parts of north-central Texas to southern Missouri and vicinity.
Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes
may occur.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will dig southward over the western states on Monday
while gradually amplifying. A belt of enhanced west-southwesterly
mid-level flow should persist over much of the central Plains into
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, with somewhat weaker flow aloft
present with southward extent across the southern Plains. A cold
front should be draped across the mid MS Valley southwestward to a
weak surface low over OK/north TX Monday morning. A dryline should
extend southward from this low across the southern Plains.

...Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys...
Increasing low-level moisture characterized by low to mid 60s
surface dewpoints is forecast to continue streaming northward across
central/east TX to the east of the dryline through the day, and into
the ArkLaTex/Mid-South ahead of the cold front. Steep mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain present over much of the warm
sector, which should contribute to the development of moderate to
locally strong instability across these regions by Monday afternoon.

The stronger mid-level flow over the northern/central CONUS may tend
to remain displaced slightly to the north of much of the warm
sector. Even so, there should be a belt of enhanced mid-level winds
extending from OK/TX to the Mid-South/lower OH Valley. Deep-layer
shear should gradually increase in magnitude with northward extent,
with values generally ranging from 30-45 kt. The strongest effective
bulk shear values will probably overlie the surface front across
MO/AR into the lower OH Valley by peak afternoon heating. This shear
will likely act to organize updrafts in any thunderstorms that can
initiate along the front and/or dryline.

The primary uncertainty regarding the severe threat on Monday is the
overall coverage of convection. Large-scale ascent aloft will remain
nebulous at best, with multiple weak mid-level disturbances possibly
moving northeastward over the warm sector through the period. The
strong EML should hinder convective initiation along the dryline
through much of the day, with the cold front perhaps providing a
better focus for low-level convergence. Still, most guidance
attempts to generate at least isolated thunderstorms along the
dryline from eastern OK/western AR into north-central/east TX late
Monday afternoon/early evening.

If convection forms, a mix of multicells and supercells appear
possible. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and large buoyancy
that should be available, any discrete thunderstorms may be capable
of producing very large hail in addition to damaging winds.
Low-level flow should remain fairly muted through much of the day
before gradually strengthening Monday evening/night. If
thunderstorms can remain semi-discrete, then perhaps a couple of
tornadoes could occur as low-level shear increases in this time
frame. A more isolated/marginal severe threat may persist with
eastward extent across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South into the lower OH
Valley Monday night, with weaker instability present across these
areas.

..Gleason.. 04/09/2022