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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Sunday
evening/night from parts of northeastern Oklahoma into Missouri.
Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough/low will remain centered over western
Canada and the northwestern CONUS on Sunday. An embedded shortwave
trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northern Plains
through the day, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest Sunday night.
At the surface, a low initially centered over KS should develop
slowly northeastward across MO through Sunday evening, while a
dryline extending southward from this low sharpens over parts of the
central/southern Plains. A cold front should eventually impinge on
modest low-level moisture returning northward across the southern
Plains/Ozarks Sunday night.

...Southern Plains into Missouri...
A pronounced EML emanating from the Southwest will be present over
much of the southern/central Plains on Sunday, and a low/mid-level
temperature inversion will likely inhibit convection across the
developing warm sector through the day. The presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates and gradually increasing low-level moisture
east of the dryline will act in conjunction with diurnal heating to
support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by early Sunday evening from
parts of north-central/northeastern OK into MO.

Most guidance suggests that isolated thunderstorms will initiate
across this region along/ahead of the cold front Sunday
evening/night, as glancing ascent from the shortwave trough over the
northern Plains and a gradually strengthening low-level jet help
overco*e lingering convective inhibition. Some of these
thunderstorms may remain slightly elevated based on NAM forecast
soundings. Regardless, the steep lapse rates aloft coupled with
30-40+ kt of deep-layer shear should foster organized updrafts, with
a supercell or two possible before storms quickly grow upscale into
one or more small bowing clusters. Isolated large hail may occur
with the initially discrete thunderstorms. Damaging winds also
appear possible if any of the clusters can remain surface-based
Sunday night.

Given the limited low-level moisture forecast and late timing of
convective development, have maintained low severe probabilities for
mainly hail/wind across parts of northeastern OK into MO where
convection appears most likely to develop. Farther south across the
southern Plains along the length of the dryline, convective
initiation appears much more uncertain/conditional owing to a lack
of ascent aloft and stronger cap.

..Gleason.. 04/09/2022