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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK AND OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado
remain possible tonight across northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota
and western Wisconsin.  Scattered damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes remain possible across the lower Ohio Valley.

...Lower Ohio Valley...

Long-lived MCS that evolved over northwestern OK Wednesday night has
progressed across southern MO into southern IL early this evening.
Strong convection, with damaging winds at times, has been noted
leading band of convection. Strongest surge is lifting northeast
toward HUF. Additionally, numerous discrete updrafts/clusters
persist across southern IN into northern KY within modest warm
advection regime. This activity should persist ahead of the short
wave associated with the MCS. Have adjusted severe probabilities a
bit north to account for recent trends.

...Upper Midwest...

Plume of steep low-level lapse rates have developed within veered
boundary-layer flow across NE/northwestern IA into southwestern MN.
Cold front is surging southeast into this region and abundant MUCAPE
exists for renewed convection later this evening, especially as the
front advances into this more buoyant air mass. Only minimal changes
were made to reflect current boundary position.

..Darrow.. 05/20/2022