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Mesoscale Discussion 0830
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Areas affected...Portions of northern Iowa and southern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 191836Z - 192030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to develop this afternoon along a
warm front near the Iowa/Minnesota border. These storms would be
capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes and very large
hail. A tornado watch is likely within the next 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A warm front continues to lift northward near the
Iowa/Minnesota border. Dewpoints near the boundary are generally in
the low 60s F. A narrow corridor of low/mid 60s F dewpoints exists
in southwestern Iowa with dewpoints in parts of central/eastern Iowa
mixing out into the upper 50s F. With an MCV currently in
southern/central Missouri, the degree and quality of moisture return
is uncertain with eastward extent. The KOAX/KFSD VWP have sampled
the 35-40 kts 850 mb winds that are helping to increase low-level
shear in the vicinity of the warm front. Objective mesoanalysis is
showing near 400 m2/s2 effective SRH right along the boundary in
northwest Iowa. Storms that form along and interact favorably with
the boundary will be capable of all severe hazards, including
tornadoes and very large hail. Should any storms move north of the
boundary, the tornado threat would be less, but large/very-large
hail would remain possible. Though low-level shear/SRH would suggest
the potential for a strong tornado, the continued decrease in
dewpoints within western/central Iowa makes this a low-probability
scenario. A tornado watch is likely within the next 2 hours.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   43299535 43989493 44249450 44299372 43909299 43509248
            42879237 42649326 42599422 43299535