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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Valid 191700Z - 201200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

Observations show sunny skies across the Southwest, with RH already
dropping below 20 percent at several locales. Continued
boundary-layer heating/mixing will promote widespread 20+ mph
sustained westerly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH across much
of the southwest into the southern High Plains later this afternoon.
As such, the previous forecast remains on track, with slight
expansions made to the Critical highlights to reflect the latest
guidance consensus. 

Similarly, dry northerly surface flow along the slopes of the higher
terrain across the Sacramento Valley is still expected today into
tonight, with dry westerly downslope flow likely later this
afternoon across eastern Montana, warranting the maintenance of
Elevated highlights. Finally, periodic dry and/or breezy surface
conditions atop modestly dry fuels may still occur this afternoon
across portions of Lower Michigan and the Southeast (see the
previous forecast below for more details).

..Squitieri.. 05/19/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022/

...Synopsis...
Strong lee cyclogenesis will occur today across the central Plains
as a 100+ knot mid-level jet crosses the Inter-Mountain west and
emerges over the Plains. The pressure field from this lee cyclone
will be expansive and result in windy conditions across much of the
western CONUS. 

...Southwest into the southern/central High Plains...
The pressure gradient will tighten across the Southwestern US today
as a strong cyclone develops in the Plains. This will result in 20
to 25 mph winds from southern Nevada across the Southwest and into
central Nebraska amid single digit relative humidity. Fuels are very
dry across this region with numerous large fires ongoing. Therefore,
rapid fire spread is possible on any existing fires and from any new
fire starts.

...Eastern Montana and far western North Dakota...
Strong low-level flow will develop across eastern Montana today as a
surface low develops in northern North Dakota. Sustained winds above
30 mph are possible with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent.
Fuels in this area are green, but there has not been any
precipitation for over a week. Therefore, some of the finer fuels
have started to cure, and at least some large fire threat will exist
in these pockets of drier fuels. 

...Northern Sacramento Valley...
Strong northerly winds will develop this afternoon within the
Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills. Sustained winds of 15 to
20 mph and 15 to 20 percent relative humidity is expected.

...Northern Lower Michigan....
Drier conditions are expected in northern Lower Michigan today (20
to 30 percent relative humidity) where fuels are critically dry.
However, winds are expected to remain around 10 mph which precludes
the need for an Elevated delineation.

...Portions of the Southeast...
Relative humidity is expected to drop to 25 to 35 percent across
much of the Southeast this afternoon during peak heating. Fuels are
critically dry with ERC values above the 90th percentile. Some
increase in initial attack is possible, but winds should remain too
light (~10 mph) to support an Elevated delineation.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...