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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The primary severe thunderstorm threat in the extended range will be
associated with a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough and a
seasonably strong cold front, which will move eastward across parts
of the southern and eastern CONUS this weekend. At this time, the
greatest confidence in an organized severe thunderstorm threat is on
D4/Friday, with increasing predictability concerns into the weekend.
 
...D4/Friday: Parts of the Great Lakes into the Southern Plains...
Favorable low-level moisture and instability along/ahead of the cold
front, in conjunction with moderate-to-strong deep-layer flow/shear
associated with the broad upper trough, will support a severe
thunderstorm threat Friday from parts of the Great Lakes through the
Midwest/Ohio Valley, and potentially into the Ozark Plateau and
southern Plains. 

...D5/Saturday: Lower Great Lakes/Northeast into the TN/lower MS
Valleys...
As the cold front pushes eastward, some severe thunderstorm threat
is possible on Saturday from parts of the lower Great Lakes and
Northeast into the TN and lower MS Valleys. Some of the latest
guidance, including ECMWF deterministic and ensemble forecasts, has
trended significantly slower with the cold front, and also somewhat
weaker and more positively tilted with the upper trough.
Probabilities may eventually be reintroduced for Saturday once there
is greater confidence in the frontal position, but the tendency for
stronger mid/upper-level flow to beco*e displaced north of the front
may tend to limit the magnitude of the severe threat.  

...D6/Sunday: New England into the Mid Atlantic...
Predictability concerns regarding the timing/location of the cold
front continue into Sunday. Some severe threat could evolve on
Sunday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic, if
sufficient heating/destabilization can occur ahead of the front.
Confidence is too low to delineate any 15% areas for D6/Sunday at
this time.