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Mesoscale Discussion 0787
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...Eastern NY...Far Eastern PA...Northern NJ

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226...227...229...

Valid 161843Z - 162015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226, 227,
229 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and large hail will
persist for at least the next several hours across eastern NY, far
eastern PA, and northern NJ.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows an expansive convective
line extending from just east of Lake Ontario southward into
northeast PA and then back southwestward across far eastern PA. Air
mass downstream of this line has warmed into the upper 70s and low
80s. Mesoanalysis estimates 0-3 km lapse rates over 7.5 deg C per km
across much of this region. Linear convective structure coupled with
moderate buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates suggests the
threat for damaging wind gusts will persist with this line as it
moves eastward this afternoon.

Cellular development ahead of the line will likely continue this
afternoon as well. These storms could produce large hail and/or
damaging wind gusts, particularly as a result of updraft
augmentation due to interaction with the approaching line.

..Mosier.. 05/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   42387563 43417601 44067517 43477390 42127356 40407470
            40377616 41437560 42387563