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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

[html]SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
         
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below.

..Weinman.. 05/16/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022/

...Synopsis...
A midlevel ridge will begin to weaken today as a series of
upper-level shortwave troughs move across parts of the
central/southern Rockies. A weak surface low is expected to develop
across the central High Plains, with a lee trough potentially
extending southward into parts of NM and west TX.

...Parts of NM/CO into the central/southern High Plains...
Gradually increasing low/midlevel flow will support sustained winds
of 15-20 mph (locally higher) across much of NM/west TX into
southern CO and parts of the High Plains. These winds, in
conjunction with RH dropping below 15% across NM/west TX, and
potentially into the 20-25% range across southeast CO/western KS,
will support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions.

High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon
from eastern NM into southeast CO. Some locally higher precipitation
amounts are possible with the strongest storms, but widespread
wetting rainfall is not expected, and the potential for lightning
activity amid very receptive fuels continues to merit an isolated
dry-thunderstorm delineation across this area. Gusty outflow winds
may beco*e rather widespread by early evening across the area as
well.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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Source: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)