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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the Mid-Missouri
Valley, the Ozarks, the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and the lower Ohio
Valley tomorrow. Scattered damaging wind gusts and large hail will
be the primary threats. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of
gusty winds and perhaps large hail are also possible in parts of the
Northwest.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move through the central Plains and into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A weak surface low is expected to
develop in Oklahoma. A east-west cold front will be positioned from
near the Kansas/Nebraska border into the upper Midwest. A moist
boundary layer (low/mid 60s F dewpoints in the Ozarks/Mid-South)
will exist ahead of the cold front that will eventually move
southward through the day.

...Mid-Missouri Valley...
Convection is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period.
Long hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates will favor a few
elevated supercells capable of large hail. Isolated wind gusts may
occur, but the boundary layer will generally remain stable during
the morning. Some uncertainty exists with regard to when stronger
gusts will more readily make it to the surface, though this
potential should generally remain south of the Kansas City Metro.

...Southeastern Kansas and Northeastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks...
Strong heating is expected ahead of the early-day convection in the
Mid-Missouri Valley. As low-level lapse rates steepen, strong wind
gusts should beco*e more widespread during the afternoon. Long
hodographs will favor some supercell structures, though the
advancing cold front may tend to organize storms linearly with time.
Scattered damaging wind gusts appear possible given MLCAPE values of
3000-4000 J/kg and steep lapse rates in the low/mid troposphere.
Bowing segments moving along the boundary appear most probable,
though outflow from storms could also initiate severe storms farther
to the west. Initial storms along outflow would likely be
supercellular and capable of large hail. Given lower confidence in
the position of those storms, higher hail probabilities will be
withheld.

...Northwest...
A shortwave trough will be favorably timed with afternoon peak
heating in parts of eastern Oregon/Washington into adjacent Idaho.
Though MLCAPE will be on the marginal side due to limited moisture
and some cloud cover, a few strong to severe storms are possible.
Effective shear values of 40-50 kts will favor marginal supercell
structures capable of wind damage and perhaps large hail.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...
Surface heating within a relatively moist boundary-layer regime will
promote storms within some of the higher terrain. Weak shear and
modest mid-level lapse rates will keep storm intensity marginal.
However, a few stronger wind gusts and marginally severe hail may
occur.

..Wendt.. 05/14/2022