SPC May 14, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
[html]SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this
evening across a large portion of the central states. The most
probable area for large hail and damaging winds into late evening is
from southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma.
...Northwest TX into southwest OK...
A few intense storms have developed across northwest TX and
southwest OK this evening, within an environment characterized by
moderate buoyancy, steep low/midlevel lapse rates, and modest
deep-layer shear. Large hail and locally severe wind gusts will be
possible with these storms through mid-evening, before an expected
weakening trend after sunset due to nocturnal cooling/stabilization.
See MCD 754 for more information.
...Southern KS into northern/central OK...
Several attempts at convective initiation have been noted over the
last 1-2 hours across south-central KS, in the vicinity of a weak
surface trough, within a strongly unstable environment. It remains
possible that a small cluster will develop and move southeastward
across parts of northern OK later this evening. Moderate deep-layer
shear will support some storm organization, with a corresponding
hail and damaging wind risk.
...Upper Great Lakes into the lower MS Valley...
A corridor of slow-moving strong storms from parts of LA into the
U.P. of MI may continue to pose an isolated hail/wind risk for a few
hours this evening, though a general decreasing trend is expected
after sunset.
..Dean.. 05/14/2022
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Source: SPC May 14, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html)