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Mesoscale Discussion 0750
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

Areas affected...parts of west/central and northwest Texas toward
the Red River

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132041Z - 132315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated storms are expected to form after 22Z
over parts of west-central and northwest Texas, producing a few
severe gusts and large hail. If severe coverage is to be more than
isolated, then a watch may be considered.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows strong heating and temperatures
approaching 100 F in the San Angelo to Abilene area, which is also
within a zone of weak surface convergence extending from southwest
TX into southwest OK. This also overlaps with the instability axis
of 2000 J/kg MLCAPE as dewpoints hold in the 50s to near 60 F. East
of this region, lower overall moisture content is evident, with PWAT
< 1.00" across much of central TX.

Visible imagery shows CU beginning to form near the surface trough
and within the surface theta-e axis. Models suggest storms forming
around 22-23Z in this region, and persisting for a few hours. Weak
low-level flow and modest westerlies aloft suggest
east/southeastward-moving cells or clusters capable of producing
substantial outflow winds. Moderate instability with steep overall
lapse rate profiles further support hail with the stronger cells.

..Jewell/Grams.. 05/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33779947 34289873 34449802 34359774 33979754 33429773
            32029867 31459949 31270055 31430133 31920148 33779947