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Mesoscale Discussion 0749
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

Areas affected...Portions of northwestern Illinois into far
south-central Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 131953Z - 132130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and small hail are possible should a
storm initiate/mature this afternoon. No watch is expected.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating ahead of a cold front has promoted
deepening cumulus from northwestern Illinois. Along with this
heating, though, dewpoints have also mixed into the upper 50s to low
60s F. Convergence along the front is also rather weak, though the
deepest cumulus has developed southwest of Rockford where
convergence is locally higher. Currently, it seems probable that a
storm or two could develop within the next 1-3 hours. Effective
shear is weak (around 20 kts) with the stronger mid-level winds
displaced to the northwest. The 18Z DVN sounding does show steep
mid/low-level lapse rates. Should a storm mature, isolated wind
damage and possible small hail would be possible. A watch is not
expected.

..Wendt/Grams.. 05/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   42688933 42588914 42058910 40978938 40808975 40929020
            41509023 42139013 42439011 42738992 42758964 42688933