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Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OK INTO MO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Friday
from the Upper Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains.  The
stronger storms will be capable of damaging gusts and hail.

...Upper MS Valley to the southern Plains through early tonight...
Only small changes to the large-scale pattern are expected through
early Saturday, as a weakening midlevel low will persist over the
Southeast, and the primary belt of westerlies aloft will remain from
the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains/upper MS Valley.  In
the wake of an embedded shortwave trough and occluding cyclone
moving north-northeastward to southern MB and western ON, a trailing
cold front will make slow southeastward progress from WI to MO and
OK.  Despite some low-level drying the past few days as a result of
retrogression of the Southeast midlevel low, boundary-layer
dewpoints remain mostly in the mid 60s ahead of the slow-moving cold
front and residual outflow boundaries.  The corridor of richer
pre-frontal moisture will be narrowest to the north toward WI, and
somewhat broader to the south toward MO and OK. 

Overnight/morning convection raises some uncertainty in the forecast
for this afternoon/evening.  It appears some of the convection may
persist long enough from northeast OK to northwest MO to influence
later storm development through the stabilizing effects of lingering
clouds into the afternoon.  Any persistent differential heating
zones and/or convective outflows could also serve to focus afternoon
storm development.  With MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg expected and modest
vertical shear, a mix of multicell clusters and some supercells will
be possible later this afternoon into early tonight from OK into MO.
 Occasional damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be the main
threats.  The window of opportunity for severe storms toward WI will
be smaller and more marginal, given relatively weak vertical shear
and weaker buoyancy in a narrower corridor co*pared to the MO-OK
area.

Farther southwest in TX, aside from isolated morning storms, deep
mixing with strong surface heating should support at least isolated
thunderstorm development later this afternoon along and immediately
east of a remnant dryline/front.  Inverted-V profiles will support
high-based storms with the threat of strong downburst winds. 
Mid-upper westerly flow and straight hodographs could be sufficient
for some splitting supercells with isolated large hail.

...Lower MS Valley this afternoon/evening...
Along a diffuse front near the MS River and beneath modest (20-25
kt) northerly flow aloft, daytime heating and boundary-layer
dewpoints in the 68-70 F range will contribute to MLCAPE of
2500-3000 J/kg.  Scattered thunderstorm development is expected
along the diffuse front by mid afternoon, and multicell clusters
will subsequently spread southward across the Ark-La-Miss through
this evening.  Vertical shear will be relatively weak, but midlevel
lapse rates/buoyancy will be sufficiently large to support
marginally severe hail.  Steep low-level lapse rates, DCAPE near
1000 J/kg, and precipitation loading suggest that strong outflow
gusts will be the main concern.

..Thompson.. 05/13/2022