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Mesoscale Discussion 0747
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0840 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Minnesota...Far Northwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 213...

Valid 130140Z - 130315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 213
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat will continue for another hour or so
across parts of eastern Minnesota, and may impact far northwestern
Wisconsin. But the threat should beco*e more isolated with time. A
local extension could be necessary just to the east of WW 213.

DISCUSSION...A large-scale bowing line segment is currently ongoing
in east-central Minnesota. Wind-damage will continue to be possible
along the leading edge of the line as it moves eastward to the edge
of WW 213. However, the airmass is nearly stable to the west of Lake
Superior, where cool air is advecting westward off the lake. As the
line moves into this air with very little instability, the severe
threat is expected to diminish. Further south into northwest
Wisconsin, some instability is present and MLCAPE is in the 1000 to
1500 J/kg range. The southern part of the line could move eastward
into this instability across far northwest Wisconsin and maintain a
wind-damage threat. A local extension in area may be needed.
However, the line should beco*e less organized and the wind-damage
threat should beco*e increasingly isolated as instability drops.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

LAT...LON   46269362 45829328 45489310 45359269 45429173 45929154
            46829192 47359285 47589402 47319448 46969439 46269362