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Mesoscale Discussion 0736
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Areas affected...Northeastern Wisconsin and western Michigan Upper
Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 121849Z - 122015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible this
afternoon along the warm front and nearby lake/bay breeze
boundaries. Strong buoyancy will support large hail initially along
with a threat for damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Despite mid-level ridging, strong surface heating of a
very moist airmass south of the warm front has contributed to large
buoyancy (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) across northern Wisconsin. Visible
satellite shows deepening showers and some lightning activity in the
Wausau vicinity. Continued heating along the warm front and lake/bay
breeze boundaries to the east could allow widely scattered to
scattered storms to develop. Severe storm coverage is uncertain
given the otherwise unfavorable large-scale support. Effective shear
is relatively weak (20-30 kts), but supportive of modest
organization should storms mature. Large hail could occur initially,
but the more broad threat will likely be damaging wind gusts. If
enough storms develop, some congealing of cold pools can be expected
with an coincident increase in damaging wind potential.

An outflow boundary in northwestern Wisconsin is also advancing
east. As this boundary interacts with the warm front, some potential
for additional storm development will exist. These storms would pose
a similar wind and hail threat.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44489001 44739050 44909068 45259092 45639073 45809007
            46248866 46298792 46098775 45718799 45348806 44958805
            44668883 44518956 44489001