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Mesoscale Discussion 0734
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Areas affected...Central/southern Mississippi...parts of
southeastern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 121700Z - 121830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong heating beneath a retrograding upper cyclone will
support potentially scattered storms across parts of Mississippi
into southeast Louisiana. Damaging gusts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Modifying the 12Z observed JAN soundings for current
surface observations, very little MLCIN remains. Visible satellite
trends also confirm this with deepening cumulus/weak thunderstorm
development in east-central Mississippi. With time, additional
storms are possible due to weak cooling/height falls from a
retrograding cyclone off the southeastern coast. Wind shear along
the western flank of this feature (20-30 kts effective) will be
sufficient for multicellular cluster storm modes. Strong heating and
2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will support a risk for damaging winds as
storms intensify. Some CAM guidance shows potential for cold pool
organization which could produce a corridor more organized damaging
gusts.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   32099132 33239012 33758891 33428850 33148830 32368838
            31168968 31039013 30989050 31219117 31369136 32099132