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Mesoscale Discussion 0722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Areas affected...Western Texas and far eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 112017Z - 112215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms are possible later this afternoon in
parts of the southern High Plains. Initial storms may produce
large/very-large hail, but a damaging wind threat is expected
relatively quickly as storms grow upscale. A watch is possible for
parts of the region.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus development has increased along a dryline in
far eastern New Mexico into western Texas. This is particularly the
case near the Davis Mountains. Strong surface heating of a
moderately (dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F) boundary layer
has supported 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. With large-scale forcing more
subtle than yesterday, storm coverage is much less certain. However,
a few clusters of storms are possible as continued heating leads to
CIN being eroded within the next 1-3 hours. Storm initiation is most
likely around the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains. With
effective shear of 25-35 kts, a few organized cells are possible
initially. Large to very large hail is possible with initial
discrete activity. Dewpoint spreads in the boundary layer and modest
deep-layer shear will likely promote upscale growth relatively
quickly. Damaging winds would beco*e the primary threat as this
occurs. A watch is possible for parts of the region as convective
trends warrant.

..Wendt/Mosier.. 05/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34110363 35880313 36520263 36530197 36130158 35010148
            33270204 31640240 31110260 30960293 31150365 32380385
            34110363