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Mesoscale Discussion 0701
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Mon May 09 2022

Areas affected...East-central/southeast MN into northwest WI

Concerning...Tornado Watch 194...

Valid 092221Z - 092345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 194 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado and large hail threat will increase into the
early evening with any sustained supercell.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have recently developed across
portions of east-central/southeast MN, within a moderately unstable
and strongly sheared environment. It remains unclear how many of
these cells will mature and beco*e sustained into the early evening,
due to the influence of relatively warm and dry midlevels noted in
the 20Z MPX sounding. However, strong warm advection downstream is
resulting in a narrow corridor of destabilization ahead of these
cells, and at least a couple of supercells are expected to spread
into northwest WI with time. 

Very strong effective shear (60+ kt) and 0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2
(greater with northward extent) will support a conditionally
favorable tornado environment for any mature supercell that can be
sustained, in addition to a large hail threat. The eastward extent
of the greater risk will be determined by how quickly the downstream
environment can destabilize as storms move rapidly northeastward.

..Dean.. 05/09/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44299307 45139315 46139325 46279264 45959203 45109191
            44599186 43989186 44009300 44299307