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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon May 09 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND OVER PARTS OF WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across portions
of the western Texas vicinity late in the day Tuesday, acco*panied
by a hail/wind risk.  A couple of severe storms bringing all-hazards
potential may also develop across the central/eastern Wisconsin area
during the afternoon and early evening.

...Southern High Plains...
A lower-latitude mid-level vorticity maximum is forecast to migrate
northeastward from northern MX through the Permian Basin during the
period.  Modest large-scale ascent will likewise overspread the
southern High Plains during peak heating as diurnal heating weakens
the capping inversion.  Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to
develop by mid afternoon in terrain focused areas of southwest TX
with other isolated to scattered storms developing by the late
afternoon/early evening.  Model guidance has trended towards higher
storm coverage co*pared to previously forecast, particularly over
southwest TX northward through the South Plains/Caprock.  Forecast
soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8.5-9.0 deg C/km)
atop a moisture-rich low-level airmass.  Upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg
MLCAPE seems plausible.  Strong veering of flow will lead to
substantial directional shear (30-40 kt effective shear) across
parts of the Big Bend/Permian Basin, where supercells are more
probable.  Weaker deep-layer shear farther north will favor
organized multicells/transient supercell structure during the
evening before evolving into linear clusters and severe gusts
beco*ing the primary severe hazard late.  

...WI vicinity...
A cold front is expected to move slowly southeastward across the
Upper Mississippi Valley area during the day beneath neutral/weak
rising mid-level heights.  The implied weak forcing setup will
likely maintain a capping inversion through the early-mid afternoon.
 However, strong heating will contribute to a weakened/local erosion
of the cap by late afternoon.  

Continuing with the prior forecast, it seems the greatest potential
for surface-based convection appears to exist across central WI,
where a supercell or two could develop before growing upscale into a
linear cluster.  Ample deep-layer shear/buoyancy would conditionally
support a supercell being capable of all severe hazards. 
Considerable uncertainty remains possible upscale growth during the
evening impacting the southern WI/northern IL vicinity.  Elsewhere,
farther north/northwest, it appears that storms may remain elevated
just to the cool side of the boundary, where a stronger updraft or
two could produce marginally severe hail.

..Smith.. 05/09/2022