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Mesoscale Discussion 0699
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Mon May 09 2022

Areas affected...northern WI into the western Upper Peninsula of MI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193...

Valid 091658Z - 091800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe hail will continue to be possible across WW 193 for
the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...An intense elevated supercell continues to produce
severe hail up to 1.75 inches in diameter as of 1640z. While MRMS
MESH has weakened, the supercell still appears to be well-organized
in KDLH 88-D data. Specifically a three-body scatter spike is noted
in addition to very low differential reflectivity signatures, both
being indicative of large hail. MUCAPE is steadily increasing with
eastward extent, keeping pace with the progression of the supercell,
and coincident with a strong 850 mb low-level jet and warm advection
regime. This may continue to support severe hail for another 1-2
hours given steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable shear. It is
unclear if a downstream watch will be needed for portions of WFO GRB
and MQT, but trends will be monitored over the next hour or so as
the Sawyer County WI supercell shifts east/northeast.

..Leitman.. 05/09/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

LAT...LON   46209156 46639006 46718961 46688935 46488916 46188910
            45968917 45788952 45698987 45759120 45819149 46209156