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Mesoscale Discussion 0690
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sun May 08 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern South Dakota...southeastern
North Dakota and adjacent Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 081955Z - 082200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...One or two supercells posing mainly a risk for severe hail
may develop across the region through 4-6 PM CDT.  It is not
anticipated that this will require a severe weather watch due to the
limited coverage and relatively marginal nature of the severe
threat, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of a surface cyclone now migrating to the
north of the Canadian Prairies, a narrow corridor of residual
low-level moisture along a remnant convergence zone has beco*e a
focus for modest destabilization (including mixed-layer CAPE up to
1000 J/kg).  This has occurred largely in response to insolation
beneath the southwestern periphery of a broad pocket of cold
mid-level air (including 500 mb temps around -20C).  This is also
just to the north of the leading edge of warming in the 850-700 mb
layer, associated with the northward return of elevated mixed-layer
air.

Thunderstorm activity has begun to initiate to the southwest of
Fargo ND, with deepening convective development also occurring to
the northeast of Aberdeen SD, as a weakening but still vigorous
southwesterly mid-level jet streak (50-60 kt around 500 mb) noses
northeastward toward the Red River Valley.  Although low-level wind
fields are weak, deep-layer shear is beco*ing strong, and it appears
that one or two supercells posing a risk for severe hail could
develop during the next few hours.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46019869 46359821 47069724 46449643 45179821 45109910
            45439917 46019869