Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sun May 08 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
IOWA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated late-day storms may develop from portions of Iowa into
adjacent western Wisconsin, where local risk for hail/damaging
winds, and possibly a tornado, may evolve.

...Synopsis...
The upper pattern across the U.S. will remain largely unchanged at
broad scales, with a trough remaining over the west, while a low
drifts very slowly eastward away from the East Coast.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone will continue to stretch
northeast-to-southwest across the Plains and into the southwestern
U.S., with minor eastward progress expected through the period.

...Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity...
Afternoon heating/mixing south/east of an oscillating baroclinic
zone lying over the Upper Mississippi Valley area will occur Monday.
While strong capping will remain in place through much of the day,
the cap will weaken through peak heating due primarily to mixing
effects.  

Models continue to vary with respect to potential for cap breaches
-- and subsequent late-day surface-based storm development.  With
that said, agreement exists that strong CAPE will evolve which --
co*bined with flow veering and increasing with height -- supports an
all-hazards severe risk.  As such, a narrow corridor of conditional
15% hail/wind and 5% tornado potential is being included from
portions of south-central Iowa to southwestern Wisconsin.

Lesser risk is apparent northward to the Minnesota arrowhead, where
isolated storms may develop late in the day near the front, within a
less-unstable airmass.  

Overall, any surface-based storms should weaken shortly after
sunset, as the cap beco*es re-established.  Elevated storms,
meanwhile, may expand across central and northern Wisconsin and
adjacent areas overnight, where local risk for hail may persist into
the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 05/08/2022