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Mesoscale Discussion 0684
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Sat May 07 2022

Areas affected...portions of the central and southern FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071702Z - 071900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue through
the mid afternoon.  Isolated small to marginally severe
hail/localized gusts (45-60 mph) are possible with the strongest
storms.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a cluster of storms
from 50 mi. west of Sarasota (SRQ) eastward to the west coast, with
other clusters inland and preferentially developing on convective
outflow.  A cumulus field is noted over the Big Cypress
Reserve/Everglades to the south-southwest of the ongoing inland
thunderstorms in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee early this
afternoon.  Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the
Mid-Atlantic states with a disturbance over the Carolinas moving
through the base of the large-scale trough.  The upper forcing for
ascent with this feature will be displaced in large part from the
southern half of the FL Peninsula today.  It does appear a weak
mid-level vorticity lobe over the FL Panhandle will gradually
approach the FL Peninsula from the FL Panhandle but it remains
uncertain how much substantial influence this feature will have
regarding storm intensity/coverage this afternoon.

At the surface, generally westerly flow is contributing to a nearly
unidirectional westerly wind profile increasing in speed with height
to 30-40 kt at 500 mb (per Tampa Bay and Miami 88D VAD data).  A
moist airmass with surface dewpoints near 70 F and temperatures in
the upper 80s to 90 F have resulted in moderate destabilization. 
However, it seems the lack of appreciable low-level convergence,
coupled with weak upper forcing for ascent, will contribute to
limited severe potential in an overall quasi-chaotic thunderstorm
setup ahead of the cold front.

..Smith/Guyer.. 05/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON   27608331 27628227 27898138 27708065 27528028 26838002
            26617938 26277934 26097974 25377996 25248017 25438036
            26088010 26378064 26638219 27178330 27398362 27608331