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Mesoscale Discussion 0666
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Thu May 05 2022

Areas affected...portions of central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 052315Z - 060045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may materialize with the more
robust storms that can develop in central Mississippi, just south of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182. An additional WW issuance is
unexpected given the sparse, spatially confined nature of the severe
threat outside of the watch area.

DISCUSSION...A couple of supercell structures have recently
materialized across portions of central MS within a low-level
confluence axis ahead of a mature MCS. MRMS mosaic radar data shows
30+ dBZ cores exceeding 50 kft, indicative of robust convective
growth. Deep-layer shear is a bit stronger across central MS
relative to areas farther north, with 50-55 kts of effective bulk
shear, driven mainly by stronger speed shear above 700 mb as a
mid-level speed max overspreads MS. As such, sustained supercell
structures may persist for a couple more hours, posing some threat
for severe hail. Damaging gusts may also occur (given mid 80s F
surface temperatures and a well-mixed boundary layer/steep low-level
lapse rates). After a couple of hours, storms may be overtaken by
the line and undercut by the MCS cold pool. Given the anticipated
brief and spatially confined nature of the severe threat, a WW
issuance is not expected. However, a local extension of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 0182 is possible.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 05/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...

LAT...LON   31919179 32939100 33309031 33278968 32868948 32328966
            31978989 31809011 31739072 31919179