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Mesoscale Discussion 0660
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Thu May 05 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northeast TX...southeast OK...and far
southwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 051818Z - 051945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible over the next couple hours, though watch issuance is not
expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convection, the boundary-layer
has sufficiently recovered across northeast TX into southeast OK --
aided by strengthening large-scale ascent/cooling aloft and lower
60s surface dewpoints. VWP data from SRX shows 55-65 kt 0-6 km bulk
shear, with modest veering in the 0-3-km layer and a long/straight
mid/upper-level hodograph. These factors could support the risk risk
of isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts with northeastward
tracking supercell clusters during the next couple hours. While the
generally straight hodograph may favor splitting supercells and
resultant cell interactions, any longer-lived semi-discrete
right-moving supercells that can root in the boundary layer could
pose a brief tornado risk owing to 200-250 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH (per SRX
VWP data). The anticipated short spatial/temporal nature of the
threat will likely preclude watch issuance, though trends will be
monitored.

..Weinman/Smith.. 05/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34029659 34519638 34939610 35369567 35499531 35449466
            35149425 34599421 34259434 33769464 33429506 33389562
            33509636 34029659