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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Thu May 05 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over a large part of the
southeastern states on Friday. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes
may occur throughout the period.

...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough will move eastward across the OH and TN
valleys, with substantial height falls and increasing winds aloft.
Low pressure is forecast to travel eastward along the OH River
during the day, reaching WV by 00Z. A cold front will extend
southward from the low across eastern KY and TN, trailing
west/southwestard across central AL and into southern MS/LA.
Meanwhile, a warm front will lift northward across NC and into VA
during the day, aided by southwesterly 850 mb flow around 40 kt. 

Ample low-level moisture will exist across the warm sector, and
strong shear will favor severe storms throughout the day. Several
areas of concentrated severe potential may materialize, with the
potential for a few tornadoes.

...AL/GA...
Storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front Friday morning,
roughly from northern Al into southern MS and LA. Dewpoints in the
68-70 F range will contribute to around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE despite
being early in the day. Favorably oriented deep-layer shear vectors
of 50 kt across the boundary as well as effective SRH around 200
m2/s2 will favor supercells or bows capable of damaging winds or
tornadoes. The primary threat area is expected to develop during the
afternoon from eastern AL into GA, where moisture, instability and
shear will continue to be favorable into the diurnally favorable
time of day.

...Eastern KY and TN...
Early day storms may produce hail across the eastern half of TN and
KY as large-scale lift and instability increase. The main threat is
expected to be during the afternoon, ahead of the strong vorticity
maximum, where clearing/heating takes place and shear is strong.
While models vary regarding how much instability will develop, this
area will be very favorable for an arcing line of low-topped
supercells, with hail and tornado risk. An upgrade in risk category
may be considered in later outlooks.

...NC into VA...
Models indicate a surge of low-level moisture will occur across NC
and into VA during the day, coincident with heating. MUCAPE in
excess of 2000 J/kg is forecast by several models, with hodographs
clearly favoring supercells. Effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and
68-70 F dewpoints will also favor a tornado risk. As confidence
increases for this scenario regarding storm coverage, a categorical
upgrade could be needed in later outlooks.

..Jewell.. 05/05/2022