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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Thu May 05 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

Elevated risk areas are introduced for portions of southern NV into
northwest AZ and southern UT as well as across northeast MT.
Widespread dry conditions remain likely across the Southwest
tomorrow, and latest ensemble guidance has trended towards higher
probability of 15-20 mph winds across portions of NV/AZ/UT where
fuels continue to dry. Patchy elevated conditions remain likely
across NM into CO, but weak winds aloft and poor ensemble consensus
limit confidence in the spatial extent and magnitude of the threat.
See the previous discussion for additional details for these
regions.

A passing mid-level wave across the northern Rockies will support
breezy conditions across northern MT during the afternoon hours.
Although diurnal RH reductions will likely only fall into the 20-30%
range, 15-20 mph winds gusting to 30 mph, coupled with dry fuels
(ERCs generally above the 80th percentile), will support at least
low-end fire weather concerns.

..Moore.. 05/05/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Thu May 05 2022/

...Synopsis...
Low-amplitude ridging will develop over the Southwest on Friday. The
broad western trough will shift east with time, increasing flow
across the Divide. At the surface, the pressure pattern will
generally remain weak over areas of dry fuels.

...New Mexico...
Locally elevated conditions are possible. Dry air will remain in
place and RH will fall to 5-15% during the afternoon. Surface winds
are expected to be weaker than on Thursday as are mid-level winds.
15-20 mph winds would be most likely around wind-prone terrain
features.

...c*lorado...
The surface pressure pattern in addition to the mid-level winds
across the Divide may be enough to bring gusty winds to parts of the
Front Range. Most guidance shows 10-20% RH during the afternoon, but
varies on the wind speeds. Even with 15-20 mph possible in places,
some recent rainfall has reduced some fuel receptiveness enough to
preclude highlights. Localized concerns are possible, however.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...