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Mesoscale Discussion 0656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0945 AM CDT Thu May 05 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central through northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 051445Z - 051645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A substantive further increase in thunderstorms appears
probable into early afternoon, including the evolution of a
gradually organizing cluster of storms with damaging wind gusts
beco*ing the more prominent hazard later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An increase in thunderstorm development is ongoing near
the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas.  This appears focused
near a pre-cold frontal confluence zone (along a wind shift from
southwesterly to west-southwesterly around the 850 mb level), aided
by increasingly divergent upper flow downstream of large-scale
mid/upper troughing pivoting east of the southern Rockies.

Breaks in cloud cover preceding this activity will allow for
insolation to contribute to weakening of mid-level inhibition. 
Mixed-layer CAPE already appears on the order of 2000 J/kg, and it
appears that large-scale forcing for ascent may support a
substantive further increase in convection and upscale growth
through early afternoon.

Deep-layer shear is strong and supportive of organizing convection,
with 30-50 kt southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow in the
850-500 mb layer.  This may include a few supercells initially, with
40+ kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow supporting advection of
initial activity toward the Ark-La-Tex, before strengthening rear
inflow contributes an eastward/southeastward progression of
consolidating outflow later this afternoon.  As this occurs,
damaging wind gusts will beco*e the more prominent severe hazard
after stronger initial storms pose a risk for large hail and perhaps
a tornado or two.

..Kerr/Smith.. 05/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30619811 31169770 31819680 33289483 32869361 31219527
            30289690 30279797 30619811