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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed May 04 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and very large
hail should occur mainly this afternoon and evening from the eastern
Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas across parts of southern,
central, and eastern Oklahoma. A couple of strong tornadoes will be
possible within this corridor. Damaging winds will also be a concern
across much of Oklahoma into the Ozarks this evening and tonight,
with a continued threat of isolated tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A upper trough/low will move slowly eastward today from the Rockies
across the southern/central High Plains. A 50-60 kt mid-level
southwesterly jet will extend from the southern High Plains across
much of OK/KS by this evening. At the surface, a low should develop
east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the day,
with a dryline extending southward from this low across west TX. A
warm front will lift northward across TX and into parts of OK/AR by
late this afternoon, with rich low-level moisture present to its
south. A cold front attendant to the surface low will eventually
sweep southeastward across the southern High Plains late this
evening and overnight.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
A co*plex forecast scenario is evident across the southern Plains
today, with multiple corridors and rounds of potentially significant
severe thunderstorms possible. If any convection can develop early
this morning in the low-level warm advection regime to the north of
the warm front, it would pose a threat for large hail given the
presence of moderate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear. Any morning
thunderstorms may also act to limit the northward advance of the
warm front across OK, and the placement of the effective warm front
by this afternoon/early evening remains a source of considerable
uncertainty.

The dryline will mix eastward across the TX Panhandle and South
Plains region through this afternoon, with a corridor of at least
mid 60s surface dewpoints present along/east across TX and
southern/central OK. It appears likely that isolated to scattered
supercells will form along the dryline by mid to late afternoon.
Moderate to strong instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and
40-50+ kt of effective bulk shear all suggest that these supercells
will pose a threat for very large hail. As this convection spreads
eastward across northwest TX and into southwestern OK by this
evening, it should encounter greater low-level moisture. A low-level
jet is also forecast to strengthen somewhat by the early evening
across this region. Increasing low-level shear and elongated
hodographs will likely foster updraft rotation with any cells that
can remain discrete, and the tornado threat should increase late
this afternoon and evening. Given the favorable low-level shear
forecast, with effective SRH around 200-300+ m2/s2, some of these
tornadoes could be strong.

There also appears to be potential for additional convection to form
in the open warm sector across north TX and southern OK this morning
and afternoon as modest low-level warm advection persists across
this area. Any thunderstorms that can form along/south of the warm
front would pose a threat for all severe hazards, although the
low-level flow is forecast to remain fairly modest through the early
afternoon. The coverage and placement of any early day convection
will greatly influence the severe potential later this afternoon and
evening across central/eastern OK and north TX. If thunderstorms
remain relatively sparse through mid day, as some high-resolution
guidance suggests, then the warm front will be able to lift farther
north in central/eastern OK. Isolated to scattered supercells may
form along the warm front in central/eastern OK by late afternoon
and continuing through the evening as a southerly low-level jet
slowly strengthens. Very large hail and tornadoes would be the main
threats with these supercells if they form, and a couple strong
tornadoes appear possible. Eventually, this activity should grow
upscale into an MCS, with greater damaging wind potential.

At this point, there is too much uncertainty with the placement of
the warm front later today, and with the potential for early day
convection across the warm sector, to include greater tornado and/or
severe hail probabilities. But, a more focused mesoscale corridor of
severe potential may eventually beco*e evident across some portion
of the Enhanced Risk.

...Carolinas into Southeastern Virginia...
A shortwave trough will progress eastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will be
present over these regions, although low-level winds are forecast to
remain rather weak. Convection should form along a surface trough by
the afternoon. Strong diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass
should support moderate instability, and steepened low-level lapse
rates should also develop. Modest deep-layer shear will probably
tend to limit convective organization to some extent. Still, a few
multicells capable of producing both isolated damaging winds and
hail should move eastward much of the Carolinas and parts of
southeastern VA through the afternoon and early evening, before
weakening or moving offshore.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 05/04/2022