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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Wed May 04 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat will be likely on Thursday across parts of the
southern Plains, Arklatex, Ozarks and lower to mid Mississippi
Valley. Wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected.

...Southern Plains/Arklatex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi
Valley...
An upper-level low will move across the central Plains on Thursday,
as an associated 50 to 70 knot mid-level jet moves
east-northeastward across the Red River Valley and into the
Arklatex. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
across the southern Plains, and will be located from the Texas Hill
Country northeastward into eastern Oklahoma by afternoon. A very
moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front with surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. At the start of the
period, scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing ahead of
the front across parts of the Ozarks. These storms are forecast to
move eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley by midday. Further to
the southwest, surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop
along and ahead of the front. These storms are expected to organize
into an MCS and move east-southeastward across the Arklatex during
the late afternoon, and into the lower Mississippi Valley by mid to
late evening.

Concerning the environment, model forecasts continue to develop
moderate instability across a large part of the moist sector from
central Texas into western and central Arkansas by afternoon. 
However, the models have backed off markedly on instability across
the northern Ozarks due to the elevated convective co*plex that is
forecast during the morning. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast
within the moderately unstable airmass further to the southwest from
central Arkansas to northeast Texas. This will be due to a mid-level
jet passing through the southern Ozarks. To the right of the
mid-level jet, lift and shear will be enhanced making conditions
favorable for squall line development. The squall line is expected
to beco*e organized during the early afternoon from western Arkansas
into northeast Texas. A wind damage threat will be likely along the
leading edge of the line. Although linear mode should be favored,
isolated supercells could develop ahead of the line or within the
line itself. Tornadoes could occur with supercells, or could be
associated with line echo wave patterns within the squall line.
Overall for this event, the models have not been consistent
concerning the distribution of instability. This has contributed to
a large spread of potential convective outco*es making for a lower
confidence forecast.

Further to the southwest from central to east Texas, convective
coverage will be more isolated with southwestward extent owing to
less large-scale ascent and weaker deep-layer shear. Still, any
storms that can form within the moderately unstable airmass, should
be associated with a threat for wind damage and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/04/2022