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Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Tue May 03 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat will be likely on Thursday across parts of the
southern Plains, Arklatex, Ozarks and lower to mid Mississippi
Valley. Wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected.

...Southern Plains/Arklatex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi
Valley...
An upper-level low will move eastward across the central High Plains
on Thursday, with cyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow remaining
over the Arklatex, Ozarks and lower to mid Mississippi Valley. At
the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the
southern Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period along and ahead of the front from Oklahoma
into Missouri. The storms should be elevated, moving northeastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley by midday. Further southwest, a
moist and unstable airmass will be in place by early afternoon from
parts of central Texas northeastward into eastern Arkansas, where
surface dewpoints are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s F.
Moderate instability will develop across much of the moist sector by
midday. This along with increasing low-level convergence along and
ahead of the front, will likely result in steady increase in
convective coverage across the moist sector during the afternoon.
Some model solutions suggest that a squall line will organize and
move eastward across the Arklatex in the afternoon, reaching the
lower Mississippi Valley by early evening. This possibility seems
reasonable.

A 50 to 70 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move into the base of
the trough during the afternoon across the southern Plains and
Arklatex. On the right side of this feature, moderate to strong
deep-layer shear and strong lift, will create conditions favorable
for severe storms. NAM forecast soundings at Shreveport and Little
Rock at 21Z have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
from 35 to 45 knots. This will be sufficient for supercells with
storms that can develop further to the east across the moist sector,
and away from the squall line organizing to the west. Supercells
that can develop will have a potential for hail, wind damage and a
few tornadoes. However, winds are forecast to veer in the low-levels
as the front approaches. This will be more favorable for the
development of a linear MCS than for discrete storms, which would
make wind damage as the greatest threat. Tornadoes will be possible
with the stronger rotating cells embedded within the squall line.
The wind damage potential is expected to ramp upward in the late
afternoon and early evening as a severe linear MCS moves across
northeast Texas and from central to eastern Arkansas into northern
Louisiana.

Further southwest into the southern Plains, the tail end of the
squall line should be located somewhere in east Texas, where a wind
damage potential will exist. Although moderate instability will be
in place across the Texas Hill Country and along the Texas Coastal
Plain, any cell that can initiate there should remain very isolated.

..Broyles.. 05/03/2022