Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from
the southern Plains into the Ozarks. Large to very large hail,
scattered damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.
Marginally severe hail and wind are also possible in southern Idaho.

...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough will move into the southern/central Plains
today. A surface cyclone will deepen in the Texas Panhandle before
pivoting northeastward into the Ozarks during the evening/overnight.
A warm front is expected to continue advancing northward to near the
Kansas Oklahoma border. Its progression will be modulated by warm
advection precipitation that is expected in parts of Oklahoma and
Texas. By afternoon, a dryline will be situated in western/central
Oklahoma with a triple point in the north-central
Oklahoma/south-central Kansas vicinity. A cold front will shift
southward toward the Red River by late afternoon into the evening.

...Southern Plains...
Convection is expected to be ongoing early in the day. This activity
is expected to shift northeastward by late morning. Southerly
low-level flow will continue to advect mid/upper 60s F dewpoints
into the region. This should support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by late
afternoon. Initial storm development is most likely near the triple
point, with less certainty southward along the dryline. Given the
40-55 kts of effective shear, discrete storm modes would be favored.
Large to very large hail and tornadoes, perhaps a couple strong,
would be hazards. The greatest potential for a strong tornado would
exist with storms that interact with the warm front.

Guidance does show the potential for upscale growth with time. This
is most likely to occur as the cold front advances south and
overtakes the dryline. With somewhat weak anvil-level winds in
forecast soundings, supercells near the warm front could also grow
upscale more quickly than expected. All said, the threat for
damaging winds will likely increase towards evening across parts of
northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.

...Southern Missouri...
Questions remain with regard to how much destabilization will occur
given early-day precipitation. However, the track of the shortwave
and surface low do suggest some moisture return will occur by late
afternoon into the evening. Given strong flow at 850 mb, there is at
least some potential for damaging winds, particularly if an
organized line can maintain itself to the east.

...Southern Idaho...
Strong shear with the approach of a shortwave trough will promote
potentially organized storms as the Pacific front moves into the
area. Limited buoyancy will keep the severe threat marginal, but
some hail and gusty winds are possible.

..Wendt/Darrow.. 05/02/2022