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Mesoscale Discussion 0603
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

Areas affected...Parts of east TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 010124Z - 010300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist into late
evening, posing a threat of hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...At 0115Z, a few strong and slow-moving thunderstorms
are ongoing across parts of east TX, along and ahead of a nearly
stationary surface boundary. These storms are being fueled by strong
instability, with very steep midlevel lapse rates observed on the
00Z DRT and CRP soundings, and MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg noted
on recent mesoanalyses. While deep-layer flow/shear is not as strong
as areas further to the northeast, weak southeasterlies at the
surface veering to modest southwesterly flow aloft is supporting
effective shear of 25-35 kt, and ongoing storms have occasionally
exhibited modest midlevel rotation. 

Nocturnal cooling/stabilization should lead an overall gradual
weakening trend with time, but this process may only be gradual due
to the very moist boundary later and persistent (though modest)
convergence along the front. Given the relatively isolated nature of
the threat and expected weakening trend with time, watch issuance at
this point is unlikely.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   30079560 31149625 31589576 31239497 30619481 30219476
            30069522 30079560