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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms associated with a threat for wind damage and
isolated large hail are possible on Saturday from the mid
Mississippi Valley northward into the western Great Lakes. A couple
tornadoes may also occur from eastern Illinois into southeast
Wisconsin.

...Western Great Lakes/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A negatively tilted upper-level trough will move northeastward
across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a 60 to 75 knot mid-level
jet moves through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low will
gradually fill as it moves northeastward into the upper Mississippi
Valley. An associated cold front attendant from the low will advance
eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture
advection will occur ahead of the front with surface dewpoints
reaching the lower to mid 60s F during the day. Moderate instability
is expected to develop by afternoon across much of the moist sector
possibly reaching as far north as the Chicago Metro. Elevated
thunderstorms may be ongoing near or ahead of the front during the
morning, with surface-based development taking place during the
afternoon. The more vigorous convective development is expected to
first initiate in southern Wisconsin and central Illinois, and then
develop southward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Convection may
initially be clustered, but should gradually congeal into a line by
early evening, moving eastward into Indiana and western Kentucky.
The southern edge of the stronger thunderstorms could be as far
south as far northeastern Arkansas and far northwest Tennessee.

In addition to the moist and unstable airmass, the mid-level jet
will create strong deep-layer shear across the western Great Lakes
region. The chance for supercells will be greatest near the exit
region and to the right of the mid-level jet from far southeast
Wisconsin southward into central and eastern Illinois. Low-level
flow will be stronger along this corridor, where NAM forecast
soundings have 0-3 km storm relative helicities in the 200 to 300
m2/s2 range during the afternoon. This suggests that a supercell
tornado threat will be possible, mainly with the most intense cells
that can remain discrete. Supercells should also be associated with
isolated large hail and wind damage. As storm coverage increases
during the late afternoon and early evening, a gradual transition to
linear mode is expected. A QLCS may be able to organize and move
eastward into Indiana and western Kentucky where wind damage and
hail will be possible. The southern end of this line of strong to
severe storms may also impact parts of southeast Missouri and far
northwest Tennessee.

..Broyles.. 04/29/2022