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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds are possible from the Lower Great Lakes to
south Texas this afternoon through early evening. Isolated severe
hail may also occur in south Texas.

...Central/south Texas to Louisiana/Mississippi...
Scattered to numerous convection parallels a cold front that will
generally continue to settle south-southeastward across the region
today. A few stronger storms could be focused across southeast
Texas, southern Louisiana, and/or southern Mississippi, but the most
robust convection this afternoon will likely be focused across
central/southern Texas, especially in the general vicinity of the
Rio Grande.

Rich boundary-layer moisture characterized by low 70s surface dew
points will support a plume of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon
near and ahead of the front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected to persist and intensify during the afternoon. This setup
should yield several slow-moving multicell clusters capable of
locally strong gusts along with isolated severe hail, particularly
in closer proximity to the Rio Grande where mid-level lapse rates
are steeper.

...Tennessee/Kentucky to the Lower Great Lakes...
Scattered mostly weak convection generally coincides with an
eastward-moving cold front. Upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints
precede the front and associated convection, with an
expanding/deepening pre-frontal cumulus field coincident with
mid/high-level cloud breaks. This will likely allow for renewed
thunderstorm development and intensification this afternoon,
including areas spanning east-central Kentucky/Tennessee into Ohio,
northwest Pennsylvania, and western New York. The strongest
deep-layer winds will tend to lag the cold front, with an exception
being in closer proximity to the Lower Great Lakes where stronger
deep-layer winds/shear will exist within the warm sector. Sufficient
boundary-layer warmth/destabilization and moderately strong
low/mid-level winds will support the possibility of semi-organized
clusters capable of localized wind damage through around sunset.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/25/2022