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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms may produce isolated damaging
winds and some hail Tuesday afternoon and early evening across parts
of southeastern Virginia and the Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will advance eastward from the OH Valley/Great Lakes
across the eastern states on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front
is forecast to sweep quickly eastward over much of the East Coast.
This front should focus appreciable thunderstorm chances and
associated severe risk along its length from parts of southeastern
VA into much of NC/SC Tuesday afternoon and evening.

...Southeastern Virginia into the Carolinas...
Mid 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints should be in place ahead of the
front across this region. Strong diurnal heating of this modestly
moist low-level airmass appears likely through the day, with
temperatures generally rising into the 80s. Low-level lapse rates
are forecast to steepen as this heating occurs, and MLCAPE ranging
from 1000-1500 J/kg should beco*e co*mon ahead of the front from SC
to southeastern VA. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain fairly
modest, as the stronger mid-level flow associated with the upper
trough will tend to be slightly displaced behind the cold front
passage. Still, 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear should encourage
some modest organization to thunderstorms that develop along the
length of the front Tuesday afternoon. Given the weak low-level flow
and marginal deep-layer shear, multicell clusters should be the
primary storm mode. As this convection spreads eastward through
Tuesday afternoon and early evening, it should pose a threat for
isolated damaging winds given the steepened low-level lapse rates.
Some hail may also occur with the strongest cells, mainly from
southeastern VA into NC where deep-layer shear is forecast to be
slightly stronger.

..Gleason.. 04/25/2022