SPC MD 1793
[html]MD 1793 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1793
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022
Areas affected...much of southern and central Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 172359Z - 180330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms may persist and redevelop across much of
Iowa this evening, with hail the primary risk.
DISCUSSION...Storms on the southwestern periphery of the ongoing
rain/storm cluster has recently re-intensified over south-central
IA, as the strengthening low-level jet brings unstable air
northward. Additional cells are developing to the west, and this
general trend is likely to continue as 850 theta-e advection
increases.
Forecast soundings indicate increase elevated instability this
evening, with the MUCAPE gradient gradually moving from the MO River
across central IA. Effective shear will favor a few longer-lived
cells at 35-40 kt as well. As such, sporadic severe hail will remain
possible, and a watch may be considered.
..Jewell/Thompson.. 09/17/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 40949482 41179508 41829514 42499493 42899468 43119428
43119366 42919299 42629249 42059219 41549186 41259163
40799167 40579237 40569410 40759459 40949482
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Source: SPC MD 1793 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1793.html)
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