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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to perhaps scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated
across a portion of the central Great Plains, through 10 PM CDT.

...Discussion...
Based on recent observations and trends, the ongoing outlook appears
to be on track, with respect to anticipated evolution of
convective/severe potential this afternoon and evening.  A weakly
bowing cluster of vigorous updrafts has evolved, and is moving
across western portions of the Nebraska Panhandle at this time, and
is moving into the slightly more unstable airmass just to the east
-- within the existing SLGT risk area.  Overall, aside from minor
tweaks to the thunder area, no changes appear necessary at this
time.

..Goss.. 09/16/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022/

...Central Great Plains...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Rockies will move
east-northeast into the Dakotas by tomorrow morning. Large-scale
ascent associated with this wave will impinge on a destabilizing
downstream air mass to aid in scattered thunderstorms over the
higher terrain spreading across the High Plains later this
afternoon. This initial activity will be high-based, forming over
weak but sufficient moisture and deep/well-mixed sub-cloud layers. 
Wind profiles west of the lee trough will be nearly unidirectional,
limiting effective shear, despite gradually increasing
mid/upper-level speeds. Scattered strong to isolated severe gusts
and small to marginally severe hail will be the main hazards this
afternoon amid moderate mid-level lapse rates.

Thunderstorms forming on or crossing the lee trough may eventually
gain greater severe potential in the early evening, as activity
impinges on a more favorably moist boundary layer, currently evident
in GOES PW imagery across the eastern half of NE. While the
expectation is for the character of convection to be
outflow-dominant/cold-pool-driven by this point, sufficient veering
and strengthening of the wind profile with height will yield an
elongated hodograph that would support potential for a few embedded
supercells. The more probable evolution is for this to maintain
persistence of a mostly isolated and marginal severe wind/hail
threat after dusk into the late evening, before convective
intensities subside overnight.

...Southern High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a portion of the dryline
centered on the Panhandles where surface temperatures breach 90 F.
Modest mid-level lapse rates and weak buoyancy will be limiting
factors to storm intensity. But 20-25 kt effective shear and steep
low-level lapse rates could support locally strong gusts in the more
robust storms during the late afternoon to early evening.